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Rob's Box Office Predictions Page

For the weekend of June 19-21, 1998


First off folks, I'm sorry this took so long! My so called Real Life (TM) caught up with me the past few days. Hopefully, that won't happen any time soon. :)

Crashing into the number one spot, as predicted, was The X-Files. It arrived on the scene with a powerful 30.1 million take over the Friday-Sunday period. That was dead on with my forecast of 30 million. The faithful of the show turned out in droves for the film's opening, especially on Friday. In fact, the film's Saturday gross dropped from it's Friday's. Usually, films experience an increase in gross over that time. This brings into question the matter of The X-Files' longevity. Most of the die hard fans turned out this weekend, leaving rather small crowds for the weekends ahead. Look for The X-Files to do well this week, then begin to play off rather rapidly, ending up with 85 million by the end of its run.

Arriving at number two was Disney's newest animated feature, Mulan. The tale of the Chinese warrior princess opened with a great 22.7 million opening tally. That puts it above the 20 million that I forecasted for it. It also puts it ahead of the Disney's other recent toons, Hercules and The Hunchback of Notre Dame who bagged 21.5 and 21 million on their respective opening weekends. Reviews and word-of-mouth on Mulan have been absolutely fantastic, and that will be a definite boost for this film's long term prospects. However, it faces major challenges in the coming weeks. This Friday, Fox's family comedy Dr. Dolittle starring Eddie Murphy opens in cinemas. Then, on July 1, Disney's own Armageddon comes crashing into theaters. Both these films will attract kids and adults alike away from Mulan. Still, I look for it to perform strongly, and end up with 105 million.

Amongst sophomores, Six Days, Seven Nights bagged another 10.7 million, raising its ten day gross to 34.4 million. That was very close to the 11 million I predicted for it. The teen comedy Can't Hardly Wait dropped a lot harder than I expected, falling 52 percent and bringing in another 3.8 million, for a 10 day total of 16.1. That fall was much more than the 40 percent and 4.8 million I guessed at.

Moving on to other holdovers, Jim Carrey's drama The Truman Show fell 38 percent and sucked up 12.4 million from ticketbuyers, boosting its 17 day cume to 85.3 million. The depreciation rate for this film has been surprisingly high, considering the critical acclaim it's been receiving. Look for it to cross the finish line with 130 million. The well performing Warner Bros. thriller A Perfect Murder continued to play strongly, collecting another 7.4 million in revenue over the weekend. The Andrew Davis directed remake of Hitchcock's Dial M for Murder has a 17 day take of 46.5 million. Look for it to join it's WB stablemate City of Angels in the 75-80 million dollar range.

Finally, the rest of the pack. I predicted a 3.5 million take for Hope Floats. It ended up with 3.3. I guessed at 3 million for Deep Impact. It grossed 2.7. I forecasted 2.6 million for Robert Redford's The Horse Whisperer. It galloped away with just that total. Lastly, I thought that Godzilla would bring in 3.8 million in torn ticket stubs over the weekend. It could only chomp on 3 million worth.

That's it for this week. Check in Thursday night for my predictions for the upcoming weekend as Dr. Dolittle and Out of Sight are let loose in theaters. As always, thanks for reading.